Beijing “cautious” about deepening Japan’s defense ties with Vietnam and the Philippines

Given the recent wave of military clashes between Japan and several Southeast Asian countries with which China has disputes in the South China Sea, observers say Beijing may have been on alert.

And Beijing may try to counter such activities in the region, they added.

These observations come after Japan pledged to deepen its relations with Vietnam during a visit by Japanese Defense Minister Minoru Kihara to Vietnam this week. Tokyo, in turn, said it would provide Hanoi with two supply transport vehicles as part of a defense equipment and technology transfer agreement.

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Vietnam’s Defense Minister General Phan Van Giang called on the two countries to advance a “new, effective phase … for peace and prosperity in Asia and the world,” Vietnamese media reported.

A week earlier, Japan had held a joint military exercise with the Philippines in the South China Sea – the first of its kind.

Manila described the exercises as “part of ongoing efforts to strengthen regional and international cooperation to achieve a free and open Indo-Pacific,” according to a statement from the Philippine armed forces.

China claims sovereignty over almost all of the resource-rich South China Sea. These claims overlap with those of several countries in the region, including the Philippines and Vietnam, which have led to ongoing disputes. Tensions are particularly high between Beijing and Manila due to a series of recent clashes.

Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said Japan’s move to provide security-related materials to Vietnam was not surprising as the country had previously offered assistance with its coast guard.

However, it was a “remarkable step”, he said, as the latest agreement was led by the Japanese Ministry of Defense, while previous cases were led by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).

JICA is a government organization that has traditionally focused on economic and social support to developing countries, but in recent years has also been involved in maritime security programs.

Japanese Defense Minister Minoru Kihara (left) with Vietnamese Defense Minister Phan Van Giang during Kihara’s recent visit to Hanoi. Photo: AP alt=Japanese Defense Minister Minoru Kihara (left) with Vietnamese Defense Minister Phan Van Giang during Kihara’s recent visit to Hanoi. Photo: AP>

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The move is an example of how Japan is adapting its Vientiane Vision – a defense initiative that governs Tokyo’s cooperation with members of ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) – to Vietnam’s needs, Koh said.

“So it starts with non-lethal and relatively simple or immature material in the form of logistics vehicles,” he said, referring to the supply transport vehicles.

“I believe this is a trial balloon. This latest transfer could potentially lead to the transfer or sale of even more sophisticated equipment, such as radar equipment, in the future.”

China is “on guard” in light of this development, Koh said, pointing out that Japan has close economic ties and growing security ties with Vietnam.

“I think Beijing’s long-term assumption is that Tokyo will supply or sell lethal weapons to Vietnam someday in the future,” he said.

“But this will ultimately come down to Hanoi’s strategic considerations, particularly given the country’s inclination to balance these core interests, which include stable relations with China.”

Greg Poling, director of the Southeast Asia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said the recent agreement between Japan and Vietnam could be a sign of deepening security relations.

He pointed out that Vietnam has upgraded its diplomatic relations with Japan to a comprehensive strategic partnership – the highest level in Hanoi’s diplomatic hierarchy – as part of its efforts to deepen ties with other external partners to counter China’s influence.

Regarding Japan’s recent naval exercises with the Philippines, Poling said they were “just the latest in a series of developments in the security relations between the two countries.”

Other examples include the four-country naval exercises conducted by Australia, Japan, the Philippines and the United States in April and a landmark agreement signed last month between Tokyo and Manila to facilitate military access for both countries.

“Tokyo and Manila believe that they face a common threat with China and are responding accordingly,” Poling said. Japan has competing claims with China in the East China Sea.

“The only thing Beijing could do now to stop this deepening partnership would be to refrain from the use and threat of force in its maritime disputes, which is unlikely under Xi’s leadership,” he said.

Prashanth Parameswaran, a fellow at the Asia program at the Wilson Center in Washington, said recent defense interactions between Japan and Southeast Asian states point to Tokyo’s growing security role in the region, which “complicates China’s quest for greater regional dominance.”

“China may prefer the status of a regional hegemonic power in Southeast Asia, but its own actions are causing countries, including Japan, to look elsewhere for ways to balance its growing influence,” said Parameswaran, who is also the founder of a newsletter on regional developments called Asean Wonk.

“Japan’s greater security role in Southeast Asia is slowly but surely becoming clearer.”

Lyle Morris, a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Centre for China Analysis, called the Japan-Vietnam agreement “significant” and said it was an example of Japan’s increasing role in supporting the transfer of military technology to claimants in the South China Sea.

Since Japan has no claim to the South China Sea, defense exchanges and equipment support are one of the key ways Japan can play a prominent role in supporting countries seeking to strengthen their capabilities, he said.

Morris said the recent developments were a “worrying trend” for China, saying China does not like “external powers” intervening in territorial disputes.

“It suggests that the claimants are willing to work with other powers in the region to strengthen their own defense capabilities. I could imagine that China will lodge a diplomatic protest with Japan and ask Japan to stay out of the dispute and not complicate the situation,” he said.

Koh said China could try to counteract such regional security arrangements through its own efforts, but so far it has had only limited success.

While success has been achieved with some Southeast Asian states such as Cambodia, Laos and Thailand, this has not been the case with others, particularly rivals in the South China Sea.

“This is also a strategic reality that Beijing may have come to terms with … that there will be constraints on these efforts to engage in defense and security engagements with its Southeast Asian rivals in the South China Sea, who seem more comfortable with such engagements with extra-regional powers that are obviously designed to counterbalance China’s moves,” he said.

Koh noted, however, that while Beijing is wary of recent developments, it “may not be overly concerned” as it appears to be consolidating its “physical position” in the South China Sea with the rapid deployment of its armed forces and coast guard.

“Beijing seems to exude a certain confidence in its ability to deal with the presence outside the region,” he said.

While China continues to believe that extra-regional powers such as the United States and Japan are interfering in the disputed waters, it has so far taken no significant measures to counter these activities.

Zhou Bo, a researcher at Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy, said the deepening relations between Japan and Southeast Asian countries reflects a change in Tokyo’s diplomatic strategy.

He said this was due to Japan’s concerns about possible Chinese use of force in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, which he described as “unreasonable”.

“(Japan’s) assessment of the regional situation has led to its desire to interact with those countries that have conflicts with China,” said Zhou, a retired People’s Liberation Army colonel.

However, he added that Japan’s recent agreement with Vietnam was “no big deal.”

“I don’t think this (military) aid will play any role in changing the situation in the South China Sea,” he said. “It’s just a drop in the ocean. (China) doesn’t have to respond to it.”

Zhou stressed that China has always faced interference from “foreign powers” ​​in the South China Sea.

“This kind of opposition (to China) is inevitable because they believe they care about the security of the South China Sea. But since no one is obstructing freedom of navigation, it will not necessarily have a big impact,” he said.

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice for reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, visit the SCMP app or the SCMP Facebook page and Þjórsárdalur Pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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